Fangraphs’ Carson Cistulli, wrote back in January that the Yankees’ bullpen had the potential for a “possibly historic” season according to Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. Cistulli wrote:
“More notable, however — indeed, possibly historic — is the club’s bullpen. Aroldis Chapman (52.1, 55 ERA-, 1.8 zWAR) is the nominal closer, but any of the pitchers featured in the depth-chart image below is capable of handling high-leverage innings. Dellin Betances (60.2, 67, 1.5), Chad Green (73.0, 67, 1.6), and David Robertson (59.2, 62, 1.7) are all forecast to record ERAs at least 30% better than league average. Tommy Kahnle (60.1, 71, 1.3) just misses that entirely arbitrary threshold.”
The elite performances of the Yankees relievers, Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, David Robertson, Adam Warren, Tommy Kahnle and Chasen Shreve, in ’17 resulted in the third-lowest ERA (3.34), the lowest average against (.204), the highest strikeout rate (29.1 percent), and the most Wins Above Replacement (9.2). The 2017 Yankee bullpen was itself historic.
Coming out of spring training, the bullpen was a reprise of last year’s arms; however, here we are in the third week of May and the ’18 bullpen has had some disappointing results.
Some of the disappointment with the bullpen has been due to injury. Tommy Kahnle went on the 10 day disabled list on April 16 with right shoulder tendonitis and Adam Warren likewise since April 21 with right back strain.
In 2018, Kahnle had not been the smoking hot middle reliever that he had been for the Yankees in 2017. Tyler Norton of Pinstripe Alley noted:
“Kahnle, 28, struggled mightily in the early goings of the 2018 season. He pitched to a 6.14 ERA, with a 5.68 FIP, across 7.1 innings. His 9.82 BB/9 and 1.23 HR/9 rates were far worse than his career average. He also experienced a noticeable dip in velocity.”
Warren and Kahnle’s absence in the bullpen has clearly impacted the roles of the other relievers, particularly a pitcher, like Betances, who has been called upon to pitch multiple innings rather than just one inning to set up Chapman. To put it mildly, Betances has yet to shine in the multi-inning reliever role.
Some of the disappointment with the bullpen this season has been that David Robertson has struggled of late. Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues says of Robertson’s struggles:
“This hasn’t been a season-long thing — Robertson went 16.2 IP, 10 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 23 K in the 16 appearances following the Justin Smoak grand slam in the opening series — it’s only been the last few outings. He looks a little out of sync with his delivery — he seems to be cutting himself off and finishing more upright rather than having that usual big follow through for whatever reason — and it’s causing him to lose location.”
As happened in his most recent outing on Wednesday against the Rangers in the sixth inning when he allowed two inherited runners to score to give the Rangers the lead. According to Pete Caldera of North Jersey.com, Robertson has three blown saves and an 8.22 ERA in eight May appearances.
After the Rangers debacle on Wednesday night, Caldera reported that Robertson was somber and admitted:
“I pitched poorly, got behind in the count and I really screwed it up honestly. Couldn’t make any good pitches and lost the game because of it…I pitched like crap, there is nothing else to say about it. Been very poor, I haven’t thrown a lot of strikes, walked guys. I would like to turn it around and get some clean innings going, but I am going through a rough patch right now and have to clean up my act.’’
Robertson says what Yankee fans were already thinking and saying, especially since the 12-10 loss to the Rangers came after a barrage of homers by the Bombers, including Didi Gregorius’ first home run since April 27, as well as homers by Gleyber Torres, Neil Walker and Aaron Judge.
Some of the disappointment with the bullpen must be the inconsistent performance of Betances. Betances has the ability to overpower and stupefy hitters and also, at times, to lose it and get hit hard.
In fact, Ron Wolschläger of Beyond the Box Score speculates on a number of different reasons why Betances has struggled this season, including his choice of pitches and placement of pitches.
Wolschlager notes that the contact rate of the Betances’ pitches has changed from 2017:
“Betances is approaching a career high in hard contact rate at 32.4 percent, almost ten percent higher than it was last season and his soft contact rate also has regressed, down to 18.9 percent, almost half of what it was last season and at least seven percent lower than every other full season.”
Betances has also failed to impress in a multi-inning relief role, as Mike Mazzeo points out below:
Suffice it to say that Yankee fans hold their breath when Betances comes out for a second inning of work these days because however unhittable his stuff is, he is unable to sustain his effectiveness.
Some of the disappointment has been with Chasen Shreve, who, SNY’s Chris Carelli says, has been “completely ineffective recently.”
Coming out of spring training, Yankees manager Aaron Boone felt that Shreve could be more than just a lefty specialist:
“We hope that he can continue to progress and be a guy that in certain situations we do ask him to go get a couple lefties. But he’s a guy like our righties that we feel good about getting both (righty and lefties) out.”
On the season, Shreve has a 4.15 ERA in 17.1 innings pitched and has been effective against lefties who are batting .190 against him, less so against righties who are batting .245 against him.
More important for Shreve’s success is his performance in various leverage situations, he is pitching to a .231 ERA in high leverage situations, a .400 ERA in medium leverage situations, and a .191 ERA in low leverage situations.
The inconsistency of Shreve’s performance in the various leverage situations has been frustrating for fans. In Wednesday’s matchup with the Rangers, Shreve entered the game in the fifth inning with the Yankees up 10-5 and gave up two hits and two runs, in what would eventually be a Yankee loss.
Finally, as a rookie manager with no previous managerial experience, bullpen management is just one element of the game Boone must master. Carelli says of Boone’s maneuvering of the bullpen:
“Boone surely had some factors going against him, but making the right calls when necessary is all he’s asked to do. The Yankees won a ton of games in which Boone was able to just sit back, relax and enjoy the show because the Yanks were dominating. However, when the spotlight has shown on his in-game maneuvering with the bullpen, he almost invariably makes at least one head-scratching decision.”
Boone’s in-game decision-making has been largely praised so far this season, but certainly his handling of the bullpen has been one area where he’s been criticized, particularly, as noted above, his decision to continue to go to Betances for multiple innings when he has been largely ineffective in that role.
While injury, ineffectiveness, and inexperience may all play a role in the disappointments the bullpen has suffered this season, the team is currently 31-15, so much has also gone right in the bullpen.
With the return of Kahnle Friday against the Angels, the Yankees move closer to re-establishing the dominant bullpen fans have been expecting all season.
